NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 4/TROPICAL CYCLONE (02B)
DATE: 08 MAY 2022 | DAY: SUNDAY | TIME: 02:40AM BST (+6 GMT)
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The Cyclonic Storm(02B) over South East Bay of Bengal has moved on NW direction and intensified more.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing excellent rotations of the LLCC(Low Level Cyclonic Circulation) along with maintaining CDO feature aloft. An obscured eye feature is trying to reveal out as the cyclone is intensifying rapidly.
It is being located about 1230km SSE of Kolkata, India.
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▪Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center is 85km/h.
Gusting up to 100km/h.
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▪Forecast:-
The System is under very favourable environment due to low to moderate VWS offsetting by Excellent Outflow & High SST. Conditions could remain favourable during another 24-36hrs.
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•It could intensify gradually into a Category 1(US) Cyclone during next 6-12hrs.
NB: the next 24-36hrs could cause faster intensification than you think.
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•As of present view, the Potential Cyclone could peak near 145kph by 9-10th May.
“There is a chance of rapid intensification in the forecast period that might change the peak intensity significantly.”
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▪Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 16km/h.
*From the present location, it could move generally on North West direction towards Eastern Indian coast with gradual intensification. Recurving into north & NNE direction likely thereafter.
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▪Landfall:-
It could cross the coasts between Odisha to SW Bangladesh around 12/13th May 2022 as a weakening Cyclone.
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▪Warning: N/A
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▪Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the Deep Sea during next 4-5days.
Sea condition could be rough to very rough over the region.
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▪Rainfall:-
Due to the direct impact of the system, Eastern India & Bangladesh could be effected by moderate to heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places across the system track between 10-15 May.
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▪Note: These information are subjective to change slightly!
So, check new updates for better information!
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Thanks, ©BWOT
Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).