NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 2/CYCLONIC STORM(04B) | DATE: 19 AUG 2022 | DAY: FRIDAY | TIME: 03:00PM BST (+6 GMT)
As of Friday noon BST, “Invest 99B” has intensified into a minimal Cyclonic Storm(04B) over North-West Bay of Bengal close to West Bengal coast.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing notable rotations with curved banding across the Low Level Circulation Center wrapping tightly.
It is being located approximately 130km South of Kolkata, India.
★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 12pm Today is 65km/h.
Gusting up to 80km/h.
★Dynamic Analysis:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in marginally favourable environment due to low wind shear & excellent outflow offsetting by land interaction. Having favourable SST (29-30°C), good lower level vorticity & few other atmospheric parameter’s support but land interaction might inhibit any further intensification of the system as it is very close to the coast and cause weakening while travels overland.
•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could maintain its intensity during next 6hrs & weaken thereafter while moving overland.
It is likely to weaken into a Deep Depression within next 18-24 hours and weaken gradually thereafter.
★Movement:-
It has moved on WNW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 18km/h.
*From the present location, it could move WNW towards West Bengal- North Odisha coast and complete landfall by this evening/night.
★Landfall:-
It could cross North Odisha/West Bengal coast as a minimal Cyclonic Storm by this evening/night.
★Warning:-
Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh coast could continue to experience of 45-65kph winds with gusting up to 75kph by during next 12-24hrs. Then, winds could reduce gradually.
★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the northern Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 24hrs. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into deep sea for next 24hrs which is close to the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
★Rainfall:-
Due to the direct influence of the System, “Central India including Odisha, West Bengal & parts of SW Bangladesh could have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Squalls between 18-23 Aug 2022. While Central India could have Very Heavy to Extremely Heavy falls at isolated places.
*Rainfall could reduce across Bangladesh from tomorrow late.
★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Resources used in this analysis: CFS, GFS, ECMWF, CMC, ACCESS-G, NAVGEM, JMA, UKMET, Meteo France Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, EWP, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, Monsoon Axis, Intra-Seasonal Oscillation, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
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Thanks, ©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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