NB: High Confidence on this forecast track!!
UPDATE 1/WELL MARKED LPA(92B) | DATE: 22 OCT 2022 | DAY: SATURDAY | TIME: 12:00PM BST (+6 GMT)
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As of Saturday noon BST, “Invest 92B” has intensified slightly over Southeast adjoining East Central Bay of Bengal.
Multispectral satellite animation is showing rotations with sheared convection north of the partially exposed Low Level Circulation Center.
It is being located approximately 1010km SSE of Mongla, Bangladesh.
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★Winds(1min avg):-
Average Maximum Wind speed in radius of 50km from the low level center at 12pm Today is 40km/h.
Gusting up to 55km/h.
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★Dynamic Analysis:-
Upper Level analysis indicates that the system is currently in marginally favourable environment due to moderate outflow, favourable SST (29°C), good lower level vorticity, moisture supply, weak CCKW offsetting by moderate to high wind shear, elongated feature, descending branch of MJO and relevant atmospheric parameters.
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•Due to the aforementioned conditions, It could intensify slowly but gradually into a Tropical Depression during next 6-12hrs & into a Deep Depression within subsequent 24hrs.
It is likely to intensify into a minimal Cyclonic Storm by 24th October.
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•With the above atmospheric condition, the storm is likely to peak near 65-70kph(~1min) with gusting up to 85/90kph.
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★Movement:-
It has moved on NW direction during past 6hrs with the average speed of 18km/h.
*From the present location, it could move WNW/NW towards West Central Bay of Bengal adjoining North West Bay of Bengal and intensify slowly but gradually.
Post 23rd Oct, it could recurve NE towards Bangladesh coast with holding intensity of a Deep Depression/minimal CS.
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★Landfall:-
It could cross Bangladesh coast between Khulna & Chittagong as a Deep Depression or minimal Cyclonic Storm by early hours of 25th October.
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★Warning:–
Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh coast could experience 45-70kph winds with gusting up to 90kph during 24-25th October. While, winds could be stronger over Bangladesh coast. Then, winds could reduce gradually. The system could bring 4-6Feet waves combined with high tide.
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★Advisory:-
Fishermen & Small boats are requested to not to venture into the northern & Central Bay of Bengal & neighborhood areas during next 3days. Everyone should cancel all tour plan into the deep sea for the given period which is close to the System Track.
Currently, whomever into the sea should stay close to the coast or avoid the risky area as stated here.
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★Rainfall:-
Due to the direct influence of the System, “Southern and Eastern Bangladesh” could have Heavy to Very Heavy rain along with Tropical Squalls between 23-27 Oct 2022. While Central Bangladesh and coastal West Bengal could have moderate rain.
*Rainfall activity could reduce across Bangladesh from 27th Late.
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★Note: These information are subjective to change slightly. So, check new updates for better information!
Resources used in this analysis: Global Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, EWP, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, Monsoon Axis, Intra-Seasonal Oscillation, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Wind Shear, Subtropical Ridge.
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Thanks, ©Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).