Tropical Storm Kong-Rey 23W Advisory and Forecast Update

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued an advisory on Tropical Storm Kong-Rey (23W), which is currently active in the Northwest Pacific region. Here’s the latest forecast with insights on its movement, intensity, and future track.

Current Position and Movement Tropical Storm Kong-Rey

As of 12:00 UTC on October 26, 2024, Tropical Storm Kong-Rey is located near 16.9°N and 135.2°E, approximately 1,311 kilometers southeast of Kadena Air Base, Japan. Over the past six hours, the storm has been moving west-northwestward at a speed of 22 km/h. This trajectory is expected to continue in the near term as it follows a narrow subtropical ridge positioned to its north.

Tropical Storm Kong-Rey’s Intensity

The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of approximately 65 km/h, with gusts reaching up to 85 km/h. The JTWC has reported a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars, with significant wave heights around 6 meters in open water. Kong-Rey’s wind field covers extensive areas, with sustained winds reaching 63 km northeast, 102 km southwest, and 204 km in the northwest quadrant.

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Forecasted Path and Intensity Changes

According to JTWC forecasts, Tropical Storm Kong-Rey is anticipated to:

1. Track Westward for the Next 48 Hours: The storm will likely maintain its westward trajectory, steered by the subtropical ridge in the north.

2. Gradual Intensification: Kong-Rey is in a moderately favorable environment, with sea surface temperatures between 29-30°C and moderate outflow, although it is currently experiencing some vertical wind shear (20-25 knots). As it moves into an area with improved upper-level outflow and reduced wind shear, it is expected to gradually intensify.

3. Peak Intensity by Day 5: By 120 hours (October 31), the JTWC predicts that Kong-Rey could reach Category 3 typhoon strength, with sustained winds of 205 km/h and gusts up to 250 km/h.

Detailed Wind Forecast of  Tropical Storm Kong-Rey

• 12-Hour Forecast (00:00 UTC, October 27): Position at 17.2°N, 133.4°E with sustained winds of 65 km/h, gusts up to 85 km/h.

• 24-Hour Forecast (12:00 UTC, October 27): Position at 17.3°N, 131.7°E with increased winds reaching 75 km/h and gusts of 90 km/h.

• 48-Hour Forecast (12:00 UTC, October 28): Expected location is 18.0°N, 128.6°E with sustained winds reaching 110 km/h and gusts up to 140 km/h.

Kong-Rey Extended Forecast: Potential for Significant Intensification

• 72 Hours (12:00 UTC, October 29): Kong-Rey could intensify to 155 km/h sustained winds, with gusts up to 195 km/h.

• 96 Hours (12:00 UTC, October 30): Winds could reach 195 km/h, with gusts up to 240 km/h.

• 120 Hours (12:00 UTC, October 31): Peak intensity of 205 km/h with gusts up to 250 km/h is forecasted as it approaches areas east of Taiwan.

Long-Range Outlook and Potential Impacts

Beyond 72 hours, Kong-Rey is expected to shift to a more northward direction. The westward movement will likely change due to a subtropical ridge reorienting as a midlatitude trough moves into southeastern China.

This change will allow the system to track poleward, posing a potential threat to the Ryukyu Islands and other areas near Taiwan and Japan in the coming days.

Monitoring and Preparedness for this Storm

The JTWC has provided a forecast confidence level rated “medium,” suggesting close monitoring. Local governments and residents in potential impact zones are advised to stay updated with local advisories and prepare for potential typhoon conditions.

For more regular updates, refer to JTWC and other meteorological services as Tropical Storm Kong-Rey continues its path through the Pacific.