SPECIAL WEATHER UPDATE | DATE: 13 NOVEMBER 2023 | TIME: 10:30PM BST (+6 GMT) | SUB: TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL | PERIOD: 14-17TH NOV 2023
Under the influence of a cyclonic circulation (Invest 94B), a Low Pressure Area is likely to develop over the southeast Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours.
BWOT’s analysis indicates that the system is likely to develop into a Well Marked LPA by 15th November and become a Depression / Deep Depression by 16-17th November. There is less chance of strong cyclone (hurricane category) due to relatively less favorable environment in the sea.
▪️️ Global models indicate the possibility of a Low Pressure Area forming over southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours and possible intensification of Depression or Deep Depression and some to minimal cyclone over West Central/North West Central Bay of Bengal during 16-17/18 November. They’re also indicating landfall by 17th evening-18th noon between Odisha to Barisal coast. However, some models indicate the possibility of the system weakening in the sea rather than making landfall.
◾ LANDFALL AND MAXIMUM INTENSITY:-
It may strike as a Depression/Deep Depression or a minimal Cyclone between the night of 17 November to the afternoon of 18 November over West Bengal to Bangladesh coast. But if it doesn’t intensify much, it may weaken over sea or may change its track. The system may intensify up to 55-75kph(~1min) during the forecast period.
⚠️EFFECTS:-
Due to the direct impact of the potential system, “Rain Belt “Poobali 2” may activate over West Bengal coast and central to southern parts of Bangladesh including coastal Odisha to witness moderate to very heavy rains/showers between 16 -18 November 2023. Heavy to very heavy rains may occur at various places in southern Bangladesh.
•Sea may be rough to very rough in West Central and Northern Bay of Bengal during 16-18 November 2023. And gusty winds of 65-85 kmph with winds of 45-65 kmph may occur in and around coastal areas of Bangladesh and West Bengal on and around 17-18 November 2023.
☔RAIN:-
Due to the direct impact of the potential system, “Rain Belt “Poobali 2” may activate over West Bengal coast and central to southern parts of Bangladesh including coastal Odisha to witness moderate to very heavy rains/showers between 16 -18 November 2023. Heavy to very heavy rains may occur at various places in southern Bangladesh.
*NB: This forecast includes Rainfall Activity only by direct influence of the Tropical system, which is based on the probable track. It could be changed if the track changes!
Resources used in this analysis: CFS, GFS, ECMWF, CMC, ACCESS-G, NAVGEM, JMA, UKMET, Meteo France Models, Himawari 8 Satellite, EWP, ER, CCKW, 200hPa VP, 850hpa Vorticity, 500hPa Vorticity, STR, 200hpa Winds, Sea Surface Temperature, OLR, WWB, EWB, ITCZ position, Synoptic Chart, Vertical Wind Shear.
★NOTE:-
This information is based on present conditions & it might be changed somewhere during the entire forecast period.
So, keep eye on the latest update for better information.
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Best regards, © Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).
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